The war between Russia and Ukraine has been ongoing for more than a year, and despite international efforts, there are no visible indications that the conflict will conclude anytime soon. 

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However, in an interview with a German television program, a Swiss expert claimed that the Russian military is currently in such a deplorable state that it could suffer a defeat in Ukraine no later than October this year, Baltijas Balss reported.  

Military and economic expert Markus Kuip, who teaches at the military academy in the Swiss Technical School of Zurich, argues that Moscow has already lost massive amounts of heavy military equipment, including tanks, in the ongoing war.  

Kuip alleged that Russia’s reserves would inevitably deplete due to their extensive losses, indicating that their endurance would not sustain much longer. 

The expert referred to the outcomes of the Russian military campaign during winter as “catastrophic.” 

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He observed that the media focuses only on the situation around Bakhmut while disregarding Russia’s attempts to attack four other areas: Kreminna, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Vuhledar. 

Kuip has described Russia’s actions as lacking military logic and an enormous waste of resources, including human lives and materials, that result in minimal progress. 

While Ukrainian forces are still gaining ground, Russia currently occupies around 18% of Ukraine, including much of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, and Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.

Russia has deliberately targeted Ukrainian infrastructure in the past two months, destroying its electricity grid and jeopardizing its healthcare system.

The United Nations previously reported that as of the end of 2022, there were approximately 18,000 civilian casualties in Ukraine, and about 50% of its energy infrastructure had been either destroyed or damaged. 

Both parties are currently unwilling to participate in the negotiation and are planning major offensives in the near future. In recent months, there have been no substantial developments that would change the direction of the war.

Some commentators had previously predicted Ukraine’s imminent victory due to Russia’s inability to win quickly with a blitzkrieg.

However, current commentary highlights that the conflict has reached a stalemate, and the situation is no longer expected to change quickly or drastically.

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Ukraine’s Spring Counteroffensive

Ukraine repelled a Russian offensive over the winter in ferocious but largely static warfare. As there seems to be no sign of a peaceful solution, the Ukrainian defense minister has recently announced that a counteroffensive may start as soon as April.

Ukraine is receiving new weapons from the West, such as German Leopard 2 tanks and American Abrams Main Battle Tank, which could play a crucial role in future assaults.

Although Western support for Ukraine has been consistent until now, there is no assurance that it will continue. 

For instance, the US military aid budget is projected to exhaust around September, and a senior American defense official has recently referred to the latest provision of artillery rounds and rockets to Ukraine as a “last-ditch effort.”

To breach Russian fortifications, tank traps, and minefields, Ukrainian officials must coordinate the actions of artillery, infantry, and armored vehicles.

Before the Russian invasion last year, Ukraine had a standing army of approximately 260,000 soldiers. However, the number of people bearing arms in various security services and military branches surged to around a million following the invasion.

According to estimates from the West, about 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers may have been killed or injured in the past year. The number of soldiers Ukraine will send out for the counteroffensive is unknown because they have not made this information public.

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There have been efforts by Ukraine to acquire the weapons and equipment required to breach minefields and trenches. Yet, it is debatable whether they are present in sufficient numbers.

The Ukrainian military has posted pictures of Challenger tanks from the United Kingdom, Marder armored vehicles from German and Stryker and Cougar armored personnel carriers from the US on Twitter. 

The Pentagon said that Ukrainian personnel recently completed their training on Patriot air defense missiles in the US. 

Military analysts predict that Ukraine would begin its counteroffensive with heavy artillery shelling along a narrow stretch of the frontline, accompanied by tank advances and bomb disposal teams. 

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